WebbPhilip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert … WebbThey’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with …

Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E ...

Webb4 jan. 2016 · In a new book, “ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ,” which he co-wrote with journalist Dan Gardner, Tetlock argues that almost anyone can learn to peer into the future ... Webb24 sep. 2016 · In the book Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, … the power of the blood by whyte

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

The co-leaders of the GJP include Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers and Don Moore. The website lists a total of about 30 team members, including the co-leaders as well as David Budescu, Lyle Ungar, Jonathan Baron, and prediction-markets entrepreneur Emile Servan-Schreiber. The advisory board included Daniel Kahneman, Robert Jervis, J. Scott Armstrong, Michael Mauboussin, Carl Spetzler and Justin Wolfers. The study employed several thousand people as volunteer forecasters. Using per… Webb20 aug. 2015 · Tetlock asks us to imagine a bunch of chimpanzees throwing darts at a board full of predictions — a metaphor for random choice. These "dart-throwing chimps," … Webbfindings address a key concern in using prediction markets prices to forecast events: their accuracy could depend critically on market liquidity and trading activity. Several researchers emphasize the potential of prediction markets to improve decisions (e.g., Hanson (2002), Hahn and Tetlock (2005), Sunstein (2006), and Cowgill, Wolfers, and siesta wholesale crafts